Saturday, April 21, 2007

Outside the Texas Rangers II

Evan Grant’s Inside the Texas Rangers gets sent to me in an email every week.

Some guys are at their best when answering emails, so I figured I’d give it a try.

But since no one sends me email questions, I figure I’ll steal that which belongs to someone else.

For years it’s had Ken Daley’s picture alongside Evan’s when I open it. Though I don’t remember Daley ever answering the questions. I know Belo is cheap and therefore hasn‘t changed the banner, but maybe they’ll be so kind to put my picture along side Evan somewhere down the road.

As always with these, I don’t read the answers of the trained professional before answering.

Evan’s original is Here.


Q: It seems to me that the Rangers made a mockery out of the "disabled list" when everyone fully admitted that Eric Gagne was fine but they wanted him to have extra work and kept him in AAA because of the 15-day DL. How can that be? It seems to me you could stash players for strategic reasons on the DL and unfairly expand your roster size. Am I missing something?
Dr. U. in Beaumont, Texas


Doc, I understand that as a (possible) medical stalwart you would have some sort of issue with the teams medical practices. But with a chance that you are some other sort of mumbo-jumbo doc like a chiropractor or medicinal marijuana prescriber, I’d like to remind you that medicine has diagnosed many more diseases and ailments than they have cured since World War I.

While things like ADHD are strictly diagnosed for parents who are too lazy or stupid to understand childhood, I wonder how you are able to pedal your fake wares on the open market as such a stickler for the term disabled. Your profession is the one that took the meaning from the word to begin with.

I also question your use of mockery. It’s not as if the DL is the Constitution or a cell phone contract.

Strategically, you are correct. Teams do use it to give themselves a better chance of winning by maintaining a fully active roster. The unfairness of such is up for debate. Do you think the Rangers are better off for having had Bruce Chen than Eric Gagne to start the season? If Gagne was not “disabled” then you must have some belief that Mike Wood was better suited for the early parts of the season based on talent?

While teams on occasion will use the DL to delay a decision, they still can’t dress more than 25 players on any day, and there is still the prescribed time frame to bring a player back to the roster for strategic purposes.

Ultimately, the meaning of disabled in the phrase “disabled list” is used to describe a player who because of reasons other than general suckiness is unable to perform up to a standard established by his own prior performance.

Q: Assuming you are a thinking man, and if my assumption is accurate, then you must have a feel for which teams are solid contenders, even at this early date. How about a dozen or so top contenders, based on what you've seen so far, and why you think so?

True, this was based on an assumption of Grant, not me, but I’ll take a shot anyway.

The Yankees and Cleveland are solid contenders based on their lineups alone. The Red Sox are also well suited to perform. The White Sox will hit better and the Tigers will pitch better once they get Kenny Rogers and Andrew Miller into big league games.

Learning is based on prior experiences, so I’m going to include the A’s who always find a way to get themselves in the discussion. I’ll also include the Rangers and Angels because the A’s won’t run away with anything. There’s 8 in the AL.

The NL teams: Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles, Arizona.

There is an even dozen. Standings this early are a lot like wins and losses for a pitcher. Partly based on performance, but also on opportunity. Last year the Rangers were on top of their division when May began. However, that was like a Rick Helling 20-win season. Based on opportunity.

So I countered that with talent and past performance. Which is why I’m not ready to write off teams like Philadelphia but you asked for a dozen top contenders, so I have some latitude to be wrong since a minimum of four teams listed above will be home in October. Twelve is a large number out of 32.

Q: I have read the recent press about Nate Gold. I guess the multimillion dollar question is, how does he project at the big league level, and does he give a viable power-hitting option by the All-Star break next season when we might be considering moving our current first baseman? At 26, he needs to get up soon, or do we have the next Steve Balboni on our hands?
Billy, Dallas


By “press” I’m guessing you mean “Newberg Report Message Board?”

He’s older and inexperienced at the upper levels of the minors so his viability is unquestionably questionable. I will question anyone who says that he can replace Mark Teixeira, who also won’t be traded. If Teixeira leaves, it will be because he walks away as a free agent.

For comparisons though, rather than Steve Balboni, I’d say he’s the next Jason Botts.

Nate Gold isn’t SUPPOSED to be a big player, so anything he does to help the parent club is gravy.


Q: What are the pro scouts saying about Sosa? I saw him crush a hanging breaking ball, but I've also seen him overpowered by a couple of fastballs. What's your take on this? Last I checked, the Rangers were last in baseball with production from the 4-6 spots in the order.

I don’t talk to pro scouts, but I also saw Mark Teixeira and Michael Young overpowered by a couple of fastballs.

I’m guessing your last statement means you are ready to be done with Sammy, but the team tried to temper expectations by saying he’d be expected to perform after May 1. He’s shown the ability to hit a homer, and has taken a couple walks lately.

He hasn’t been the teams best hitter, nor has he been the teams worst. I wish I had a more definitive answer on him. I know that Teixeira and Young will be better. I suspect that Kinsler will slow down.

But much like bladders - the older one gets, the less predictable it becomes. The same can be said for younger players, this far Brandon McCarthy has wet the bed. Hopefully Sammy becomes “Depend”able this year, and McCarthy doesn’t have to be flushed from the roster. But we just don’t know, and won’t for a while.

Q: Did the Rangers' pursuit of Eric Gagne in the off-season in any way preclude their search for another outfielder?
Phil, Lincoln, Ill.


For years Ranger fans have talked about needing pitching. Now the team gets pitching and you complain that there’s not more money being dedicated to an outfielder? Phil, I’m disappointed.

The Short Answer:
The availability of outfielders and cost relative to production (both in dollars on the open and trade markets) affected their pursuit of outfielders.

The Long Answer:
An outfield of Manny, Beltran and Vlad would definitely make the team happy. But they don’t operate in a vacuum. There is a budget and dollars allocated to one area can’t be spent elsewhere.

So the contracts to Eric Gagne, Michael Young and Vicente Padilla in some way precluded their search for an outfielder.

However, if there was a player that Jon Daniels wanted bad enough, who wanted to be a Ranger at a price that made sense - then he would be here along with Gagne, Young and Padilla.

Sorry I couldn’t give you another log to throw on your anti-management fire you were hoping to stoke.

Q: Will John Daniels' future as the Rangers GM be tied to how well Brandon McCarthy pitches over the next two years? His first two big trades, the Alfonso Soriano trade and the San Diego trade, have not turned out well, but if Danks out pitches McCarthy, would that be the last straw?
Kevin Olding


Lets use exaggeration to help us think through this.

If Brandon McCarthy goes 0-40 from this point until the end of the 2008 season, while John Danks goes 40-0 and the Texas Rangers win a World Series would you think it prudent to fire Jon Daniels because of McCarthy’s performance?

Jon Daniels job is not solely to make trades. He oversees a major league ball club, and ultimately is responsible for the players brought into and taken out of the system from the lowest rungs of the minors to the 25-man roster. He also hires the people who evaluate and educate those players. He educates those who educate and evaluate on how the team wants to educate and evaluate. He then has to evaluate those who evaluate and educate based on how well they evaluated and educated. That’s just the beginning.

His job is not a simple one.

I can think of few singular moves that would get Jon Daniels fired in the next two years. If he is unemployed it will be because the overall education, evaluation and performance from top to bottom is done at a rate deemed lower than acceptable by ownership.

Also, I would like you to tell me who has more to show this year for the Soriano trade - Texas or Washington? It hasn’t worked out the way Daniels envisioned it when making the trade, but it was the best offer on the table for Soriano.

Washington had him during his best season, and failed to find a trade partner despite being willing to move him. They only have draft picks to show for his contributions to them.

I’d also note: If it were not made, Soriano is likely at second last year, making Ian Kinsler either a rookie this year or a second year player for another franchise.

Each move Daniels makes has a ripple effect, so don’t call a trade an unmitigated disaster or a success based ONLY on the players involved.


Q: If Eric Gagne shows he's ready to be the closer, presumably enhancing the possibility of trading Akinori Otsuka, what do you assess as the need that the Rangers need to address in such a trade, and, of the teams already expressing interest in Otsuka, what do they have that we could use?
David Williams, San Dimas, Calif.


Don’t look for a trade soon, David.

Eric Gagne showing he’s ready to be the closer isn’t what will allow the team to trade Otsuka. Eric Gagne showing he’s able to be the closer for an extended period of time, plus the other members of the bullpen showing their able to step up and replace Otsuka and serve as a contingency plan for Gagne are.

I think you’re more likely to see another member of the bullpen dealt to a team in need, but you didn‘t ask that.

On a larger scale, I think the team will look for long-term solutions in the outfield and more starting pitching in any trade they make.

Cleveland has a cadre of young starting arms including Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers. Once Lee is healthy, either of those would be fine centerpieces for a trade with the Indians. If Otsuka is on their roster last year they likely make the playoffs.

Boston has some young outfielders, but solved the problems at the back of their bullpen when they moved Jonathan Palpebon back into the closers role.

One team that makes too much sense, but would never happen: The Astros. They could use someone like Otsuka and the Rangers would no doubt ask for Brad Lidge as part of the return. Hunter Pence would be the guy that the Rangers would covet, though. But it won’t happen.

There was a trade last year that included the Rangers, Astros and Orioles that would have had Lidge on the move (and Hank Blalock). It was vetoed at the ownership level of the Astros who rates his own team’s success just a small step above Ranger failure on the desirable ladder.

Oh, and………. SAN DIMAS HIGHSCHOOL FOOTBALL RULES!


Q: Why in the world was Matt Kata at third [Sunday]? Has he ever played that position? I have never seen one position player have such a negative impact on a game, and still stay in! Where was Hank Blalock? Just a day off?
Derek in Carrollton, Texas


Hank Blalock wasn’t going to play 162 games this season. Likewise, bench players have to get some time in the lineup and Matt Kata had hit reasonably well in his limited role this season. Ron Washington thought he had a favorable match up with Kata in the lineup that day, so he got the start.

No one knows better than Ron Washington how horrible a day it was at the yard for Kata. But he knows that it is just one game. With hopes to make the playoffs Wash knows that he is going to have to get some performance out of everyone on the roster.

His style is to get that performance by letting the players know he supports them. He won’t be a manager who penalizes players for a mistake or two, especially when he asks them to do something that isn’t natural for them (it was Kata’s 40th game at the hot corner since turning pro).

Q: Team roster size has been 25 for as long as I can remember. Yet the number of pitchers that teams are carrying has increased from 10 to 12 in most cases. This leaves only three position players on the bench in the AL and four in the NL, which negatively impacts the overall quality of play. Why not increase the roster size? Is it simply a cost issue?
Jack Thomas


Like other questions, that’s one that has both the simple and not-so-simple answer.

Simply - yes, it’s money. To expand by 2 players per team it would be an extra cost of almost $800,000 per team. That’s another 23 million dollars in salary league wide.

But no sport embraces it’s history like baseball does. Fans like to look at teams from year-to-year and decade-to-decade. More players on each team would make those comparisons harder.

It’s why a large segment of the fan base hates the designated hitter, despite it making for better games (don‘t start with the double switch. Any idiot can figure out a double switch, so don‘t give me strategic reasons. But since you are going to anyway, let me ask you: which requires more strategy: taking a pitcher out of the game because it‘s his turn to hit, or figuring out how long he can stay in the game and still be a help?). Had the DH always been in place, no one would complain.

It’s a maturation of the game, and changing it fundamentally isn’t something likely to happen. The need for more pitchers is caused by better hitters throughout the league. If baseball wanted to stem the tide, doing things like moving the mound closer or raising the height would do the same thing. But again, that’s a change that affects the game at the basic level.

Besides, teams would just carry a 13th pitcher.

Q: I know it is early, but Victor Diaz has followed up his strong spring training with a very hot first couple of weeks in Oklahoma. Does the organization view him as a legitimate option as a replacement for when the Rangers cut bait with Sosa?
Adam Morris


I don’t like it when questions are framed to get a certain answer, Adam. Did you read that book about winning arguments and influencing people?

For that reason alone, I’m not answering.

I do have a question for you, Mr. www.lonestarball.com (see, I’ll mention your site when I answer, too). Do you send Evan like 10 questions a week to increase the chances he’ll put one in with a link, or are you just pen pals so he posts the one that you send him?

I genuinely want to know.

I think I’ll send a question this week so that he can put it in there, and I can answer an email from myself. It’ll be just like that movie Time Cop.

SWEET!

2 comments:

Dan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dan said...

Now that is a good read, I prefered it over the original, and i'm not even a Ranger fan.